000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261513
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE MARIE CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 119.0W AT 26/1500 UTC MOVING 
WNW OR 300 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 150 
NM S SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W. SEAS 
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 40 FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE 
QUADRANT OF MARIE AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO 
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG 
THE COAST INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SWELLS FROM 
MARIE ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND 
BUILDING THROUGH WED WITH DANGEROUS SURF...MINOR COASTAL 
FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION LIKELY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR   
MORE DETAILS ON MARIE...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH 
MARIE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 127.3W AT 26/1500 
UTC MOVING SE OR 135 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 
KT. DUE TO STRONG SHEAR FROM MARIE...THE LIMITED CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH KARINA IS WELL REMOVED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER 
FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. KARINA IS FORECAST TO 
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N97W TO 11N106W. 
THERE IS NO ITCZ. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 82W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...    

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL THIS MORNING WAS CENTERED NEAR 27N133W 
WITH ESTIMATED SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. LOWELL IS STILL 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 250 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS TO 12 FT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH LOWELL. LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE 
MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SHIFTING W OF THE 
FORECAST AREA BY WED NIGHT.

CONFUSED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF KARINA...LOWELL...AND MARIE. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E 
OF 100W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO 
MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$
AL