000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260855
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.9N 117.8W AT 26/0900 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 961 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 
KT. THE EYE OF MARIE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DURING THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 100 NM IN THE SE AND 45 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLES. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 42 FT 
WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF MARIE AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS 
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W 
SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SWELLS FROM MARIE ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REACH 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUE BUILDING THROUGH WED WITH DANGEROUS 
SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION LIKELY. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR   MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 127.1W AT 
26/0900 UTC MOVING E OR 100 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE CENTER OF KARINA IS SHEARED TO THE E OF THE 
DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED FROM 16N-18N 
BETWEEN 128W-130W. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE UP TO 12 FT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 09N100W. NO ITCZ   
AXIS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-7N E OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...    

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 26N133W AT 1004 MB IS 
STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FT 
SEAS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8 
TO 11 FT SEAS IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL IS N OF 22N W OF 130W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY 
DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE W-NW 
THROUGH THEN E OF THE ARE BY 48 HOURS.

CONFUSED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF KARINA...LOWELL...AND MARIE. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E 
OF 100W WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 
AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$
DGS