000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 116.7W AT 26/0300 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 952 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
120 KT. THE EYE OF MARIE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DURING THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SE AND 45 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLES. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NE AND 330 NM IN THE SE QUADRANTS...AND 180 
NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 13N115W TO 10N120W TO 11N125W. SEAS ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 42 FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT 
OF MARIE AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT 
PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 
COAST INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SWELLS FROM 
MARIE ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUE 
BUILDING THROUGH WED WITH DANGEROUS SURF...MINOR COASTAL 
FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION LIKELY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR   
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 127.3W AT 
26/0300 UTC MOVING E OR 095 DEG AT 4KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE CENTER OF KARINA HAS TUCKED A BIT BACK INTO 
THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN   
180 NM IN THE SW AND 120 NM IN THE W QUADRANTS. THE HIGHEST SEAS 
ARE UP TO 11 FT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 10N99W. NO    
ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W...AND 
ALSO FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...    

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 26N132W AT 1003 MB IS 
STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FT 
SEAS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8 
TO 11 FT SEAS IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL IS N OF 22N W OF 130W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY 
DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE W-NW 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...APPROACHING 30N140W BY LATE WED.

CONFUSED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF KARINA...LOWELL...AND MARIE. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E 
OF 100W WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 
AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$
LEWITSKY