000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252107
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 115.8W AT 25/2100 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 939 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
140 KT. MARIE CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED EYE BUT IS 
SHOWING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR LIMITING THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION 
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION    
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM IN THE S AND SW 
QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION   
IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE AND 180 NM IN THE NW 
SEMICIRCLES...WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 15N114W TO 12N116W 
TO 10N123W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W. SEAS ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 44 FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT 
OF MARIE AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT 
PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 
COAST INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SWELLS FROM 
MARIE ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUE 
BUILDING THROUGH WED WITH DANGEROUS SURF...MINOR COASTAL 
FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION LIKELY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR   
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 
25/2100 UTC MOVING E OR 100 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE CENTER OF KARINA REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED 
HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE W QUADRANT. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE 
UP TO 11 FT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N103W. NO   
ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
79W AND 93W...AND FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN     
128W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...    

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 26N130W AT 1004 MB IS 
STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FT 
SEAS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE AS INDICATED BY A RECENT 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8 TO 11 FT SEAS 
IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL IS N OF 20N W OF 125W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND 
SUBSIDE AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE W-NW THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HOURS...APPROACHING 30N140W BY LATE WED.

CONFUSED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF KARINA...LOWELL...AND MARIE. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E 
OF 100W WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 
AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$
LEWITSKY