000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 305 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 932 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
150 KT. MARIE CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED EYE BUT IS 
SHOWING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR LIMITING THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION ON 
THE NORTHERN SIDE. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE 
AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 45 FT 
WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF MARIE AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS 
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W 
SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SWELLS FROM MARIE ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REACH 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUE BUILDING THROUGH WED WITH DANGEROUS 
SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION LIKELY. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 128.0W AT 
25/1500 UTC MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE CENTER HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO 
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO 
THE NW QUADRANT. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE UP TO 12 FT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 10N90W TO 09N100W. NO ITCZ 
AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS E OF 90W AND BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.
       
...DISCUSSION...    

THE REMNANT LOW LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 25N130W AT 1004 MB IS STILL 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FT SEAS 
WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8 TO 
11 FT SEAS IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL IS N OF 20N W OF 125W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY 
DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE  W-NW 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CONFUSED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF KARINA...LOWELL...AND MARIE. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E 
OF 100W WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 
AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$
CHRISTENSEN