000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 113.9W AT 25/0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 932 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
150 KT. MARIE CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED EYE. NUMEROUS 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 200 NM SW QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM SE AND 150 
NM NW SEMICIRCLES. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 48 FT 
WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF MARIE AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS 
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W 
SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SWELLS FROM MARIE ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REACH 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUE BUILDING THROUGH WED WITH DANGEROUS 
SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION LIKELY. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 128.4W AT 25/0900 
UTC MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  
45 KT. THE CENTER HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE NW 
QUADRANT. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE UP TO 15 FT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 7N95W TO 8N103W TO 
10N103W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N E OF 88W.
       
...DISCUSSION...    

THE REMNANT LOW LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 26N130W AT 1004 MB IS STILL 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FT SEAS 
WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8 TO 
11 FT SEAS IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL IS N OF 20N W OF 125W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY 
DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE  W-NW 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CONFUSED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF KARINA...LOWELL...AND MARIE. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E 
OF 100W WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 
AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$
DGS