000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 112.8W AT 25/0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 927 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
160 KT. MARIE CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED EYE. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER... 
EXCEPT 150 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE 
AND 180 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 12N113W TO 10N120W TO 08N123W 
AND FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 131W. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO 
BE AS HIGH AS 46 FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF MARIE AND 
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW 
MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO 
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SWELLS FROM MARIE ARE ALSO 
FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUE BUILDING THROUGH WED 
WITH DANGEROUS SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION 
LIKELY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 129.3W AT 25/0300 
UTC MOVING E OR 095 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  
50 KT. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE CENTER HAS BECOME 
COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ALL OF 
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WELL TO THE NW. THE HIGHEST 
SEAS ARE UP TO 15 FT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N76W TO 10N85W TO   
07N98W TO 10N103W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 95W.
       
...DISCUSSION...    

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 26N129W AT 1004 
MB IS STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 
12 FT SEAS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. A SURROUNDING 
AREA OF 8 TO 11 FT SEAS IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL IS N OF 20N W OF 
125W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE  
W-NW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CONFUSED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF KARINA...LOWELL...AND MARIE. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E 
OF 100W WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 
AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$
LEWITSKY