000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242104
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 112.2W AT 24/2100 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
918 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 
MARIE CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED EYE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 M OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 300 NM S OF A LINE FROM 12N112W TO 10N120W TO 12N126W... 
AND FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO 
BE AS HIGH AS 48 FT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NE QUADRANT OF MARIE... 
AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS 
OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO 
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SWELLS FROM MARIE ARE ALSO 
FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUE BUILDING THROUGH WED 
WITH DANGEROUS SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION 
LIKELY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 130.4W AT 24/2100 
UTC MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. ASSOCIATED HIGHEST SEAS ARE STILL 
REACHING AS HIGH AS 18 FT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N96W TO 
11N103W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM SE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 89W AND 102W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W.
       
...DISCUSSION...    

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 25N129W AT 1004 MB IS 
STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FT 
SEAS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8 
TO 11 FT SEAS IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL IS N OF 20N W OF 124W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY 
DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE W-NW 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CONFUSED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF KARINA...LOWELL...AND MARIE. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E 
OF 100W WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 
AND 3-6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$
LEWITSKY