000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 136.2W AT 21/0900 UTC 
MOVING ESE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS 
MORNING BUT LATER TODAY THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NE THEN N THROUGH 
FRI. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAK THROUGH SAT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 121.9W AT 21/0900 UTC 
MOVING NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE 
N SEMICIRCLE...240 NM IN THE SE AND 300 NM IN THE SW QUADRANTS. 
LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. LOWELL WILL BEGIN TO 
MOVE NW TONIGHT AND SLOWLY ACCELERATE THROUGH FRI. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N 94.5W 1007 MB MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 3-5 
DAYS...AND A LARGE INTENSE CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. 
THE LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W 
TO 09N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 110W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH WNW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 40N143W TO 26N114W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD 
AHEAD OF LOWELL...AND SUPPORTS MODERATE WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE 
OF KARINA AND LOWELL INFLUENCE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN 
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL BUTTS 
UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING 
WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT IN FAR NW PORTION. 

AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AND NUDGE INTO FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF 
02S-03S W OF 100W.

$$
MUNDELL