000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 134.8W...OR 1365 NM E 
OF HILO HAWAII AT 19/2100 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 60 NM IN THE 
SW QUADRANT. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY WED 
NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR   
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR NEAR 18.4N 120.3W...OR 643 NM WSW OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 19/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 
310 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE 
SE SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM IN THE W QUADRANT. A DECREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN 
TOWARD THE NNW WED NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N91W TO 08N91W CONTINUING 
NORTHWARD TO ACROSS GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING  
W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
S OF 13N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE-RICH SW 
FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N91W TO 
11N113W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W 
AND 103W...AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W  
AND FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

1026 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 41N143W 
EXTENDING A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N131W TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE WINDS ACROSS 
THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF 
KARINA AND LOWELL.

E OF 110W...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
W OF COLOMBIA IN THE NE PACIFIC IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 07N.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING THEN WILL EXPAND 
AND PROPAGATE WESTWARD COMBINING WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. LOW PRES IS THEN FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE 
WED NIGHT MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THU.

$$
LEWITSKY