000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191500
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1415 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 134.4W AT 19/1500 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
CENTER ALL QUADRANTS. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SOME SMALL 
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
WITH KARINA BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR NEAR 17.7N 119.7W AT 19/1500 UTC 
MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
55 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 
17N118W TO 16N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 117W-122W. A TURN TOWARD THE NW IS EXPECTED 
TO TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE N-NW AND A DECREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS 
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 90W FROM OVER MEXICO TO 8N MOVING W 
20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 08N84W TO 11N90W TO 10N92W. THE WAVE 
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE-RICH 
SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 6N84W 7N95W 8N103W TO 
12N111W BECOMING DISRUPTED BY THE TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY TO THE 
W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N AND 
180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM  
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 3N78W TO 6N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 107W-116W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N138W TO NEAR 27N118W. 
THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS 
FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W...S OF OF KARINA AND LOWELL.

AN INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION N OF 12N TO COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-96W. 

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED MORNING THEN EXPANDING W WHERE IT WILL    
COMBINE WITH A LOW FORECASTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 10N95W. THE  GAP 
WINDS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 30 KT LATER THU MORNING.

$$
PAW