000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900 UTC 
MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF 
CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS DURING WHICH IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR NEAR 17.3N 119.0W AT 19/0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM SW 
OF CENTER. LOWELL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AND MOVE NW...EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE NORTHWARD LATER IN 
THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W. THE 
INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF 
PANAMA IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 98W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE-RICH SW FLOW INTO THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A LOW IS 
LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE WED NEAR 10N95W...WITH TROPICAL 
CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 07N107W TO 
11N113W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N119W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 
87W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW OF THE AREA NEAR 41N143W 
TO NEAR 26N121W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W...OUTSIDE OF KARINA 
AND LOWELL.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE PULSING 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE 
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR EL SALVADOR. COMBINED EFFECT OF LOW 
DEVELOPMENT NEAR 10N95W AND GAP WINDS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 
30 KT THU MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL