000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190302
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 133.6W...OR 1250 NM 
E OF HILO HAWAII AT 19/0300 UTC MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 7 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. 
KARINA IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS WHILE CONTINUING ON A WSW MOTION AND WILL SLOW DOWN IN 
FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL HAS FORMED NEAR NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT 
19/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 600 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL 
STORM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE NW...EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE TO THE N 
LATER IN THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EMERGING 
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF NW NICARAGUA NEAR 11N87W. THE 
INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF 
PANAMA IS ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTING AN AREA OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. 
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOMING 
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO 
INTERACTIVE WITH MOISTURE RICH SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LOW WILL FORM 
ALONG THE WAVE BY WED NEAR 10N95W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N100W TO 
15N110W BEFORE REACHING LOWELL...THEN RESUMES WEST OF KARINA AND 
REACHES FROM 14N135W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS E OF 90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N135W TO THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25113W. 
THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA AND LOWELL.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WERE PULSING IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE ALREADY  
DIMINISHED. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING 
INTO THE PACIFIC OFF NICARAGUA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN