000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W...OR 1470 NM 
E OF HILO HAWAII AT 18/2100 UTC MOVING WSW OR 245 DEG AT 6 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. KARINA IS 
FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE 
CONTINUING ON A WSW MOTION AND WILL SLOW DOWN IN FORWARD 
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 117.9W AT 
18/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 590 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM W QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH 
THIS EVENING WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE NW...EVENTUALLY TURNING 
MORE TO THE N LATER IN THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N100W TO 
15N110W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N135W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS E OF 
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N135W TO THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25113W. 
THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA AND 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND 
ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL 
WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF PANAMA IS ENHANCING AREAS 
OF CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WERE PULSING IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE ALREADY  
DIMINISHED. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE 
FAR SW CARIBBEAN MOVES W OF THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE IT CONTINUES 
WESTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN