000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181508
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W...OR 1303 NM 
E OF HILO HAWAII AT 18/1500 UTC MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 8 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SE AND 180 NM IN THE SW 
QUADRANTS. KARINA IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE CONTINUING ON A WSW MOTION AND WILL SLOW 
DOWN IN FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 117.7W AT 
18/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 578 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 90 AND 240 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE 
W QUADRANT. THE TD IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH LATER TODAY WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE NW...EVENTUALLY 
TURNING MORE TO THE N LATER IN THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22   
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 09N94W TO  
16N110W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N135W TO 13N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS 
PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
91W AND 97W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 99W... 
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W...FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 
100W AND 105W...FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W...AND FROM 
05N TO 07N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N135W TO THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25113W. 
THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA AND TD TWELVE-E.

E OF 110W...AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH 
TO STRONG SE-S WINDS IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHICH WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY AVAILABLE MODEL 
GUIDANCE. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS NW 
MEXICO OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE THESE WINDS ALTHOUGH 
THAT CONVECTION HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. EXPECT THE WINDS TO 
DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WERE PULSING IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING 
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W 
OF THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAK LOW PRES MAY 
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE IT 
CONTINUES WESTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY