000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900 
UTC...MOVING WSW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM SW OF 
CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 117.5W AT 
18/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 595 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 
118W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 11N105W 17N112W...THEN 
CONTINUES FROM 14N134W TO 15N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 109W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 30N135W TO SOUTHERN 
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF  
T.S. KARINA AND NORTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THE BASIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES TRY TO DEVELOP.

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 100W WITH 
MODERATE DRY STABLE AIR. SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW 
CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N97W IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 109W.  

$$
MUNDELL