000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180250
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300 
UTC OR ABOUT 1200 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING WSW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM 
SW QUADRANT OF CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 
116.6W AT 18/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 550 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING W AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 
117W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH 09N83W TO 10N103W 16N113W...THEN CONTINUES 
FROM 14N130W TO 12N135W TO 15N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN E OF 
100W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 30N135W TO THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING 
FAIRLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE SOUTH EXCEPT NEAR T.S. KARINA 
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 16N115W. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THE BASIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES TRY TO DEVELOP. GAP WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 100W WITH 
MODERATE DRY STABLE AIR. SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW 
CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N97W IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 105W.  

$$
CHRISTENSEN