000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 129.5W AT 17/2100 
UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
CENTER OVER W QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A BROAD 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N115W MOVING WNW AT 10 
KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE AND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
AND A THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N115W 
1007 MB TO 17N122W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N130W TO 15N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
80W AND 105W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 30N133W TO THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING 
FAIRLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE SOUTH EXCEPT NEAR T.S. KARINA 
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 16N115W. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THE BASIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES TRY TO DEVELOP. GAP WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 100W WITH 
MODERATE DRY STABLE AIR. SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW 
CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N97W IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 105W.  

$$
CHRISTENSEN