000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171508
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1415 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 128.2W AT 17/1500 
UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF 
CENTER OVER W QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A BROAD 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N115W MOVING W-NW AT 5-10 
KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 
11N112W TO 18N117W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION FORMING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 107W/108W FROM 14N-20N MOVING W AT 
10 TO 15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER 
LOW AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER 
LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE 
AREA OF LOW FARTHER WEST NEAR 16N115W.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N85W 8N91W 11N102W 
TO 1007 MB NEAR LOW 16N115W TO 14N121W THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N128W 
ALONG 13N132W TO 15N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 7N E OF 81W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA FROM 3N-8N E OF 93W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 
95W-110W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 108W-
115W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N133W TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N112W IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS TO THE SOUTH EXCEPT NEAR T.S. KARINA. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE THE BASIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES TRY TO DEVELOP. GAP WINDS THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION N OF 
20N W OF 100W WITH MODERATE DRY STABLE AIR. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST 
TO THE E NEAR 24N107W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N E OF 110W TO OVER MEXICO. THIS 
ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S. A 
SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 90W-
96W.

$$
PAW