000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 127.0W AT 17/0300 
UTC MOVING W AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ASCAT 
PASS AT 0530 UTC SHOWS WINDS TO 35 KT PRIMARILY IN NW QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 120 NM W OF CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
16N114W...DRIFTING SLOWLY NW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 
HAS BEEN INCREASING AROUND THE LOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BUT NO CLEAR ORGANIZATION IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. ASCAT 
PASS AT 0530 UTC SHOWS WINDS TO 25 KT NE AND SW OF AN ELONGATED 
LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE LOW IS UNDER AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR AND 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN LIKELY 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 14N ALONG 106W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 
KT. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH BROAD AREA OF 
DEVELOPING LOW PRES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE THIS WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE DEVELOPING AREA OF 
LOW PRES FARTHER WEST NEAR 16N114W.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N99W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 16N114W 1009 MB TO 17N119W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 15N127W TO 
12N131W TO 14N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N125W TO THE CENTRAL 
BAJA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT TRADE WINDS FARTHER 
SOUTH EXCEPT NEAR T.S. KARINA AND A LOW PRES E OF THE AREA NEAR 
14N141W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE BASIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN 
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES TRY TO DEVELOP. 
GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS 
2-3 DAYS. SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
MUNDELL