000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162153 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT AUG 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 125.0W AT 16/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 900 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM W OF CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N112W...OR ABOUT 435 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE WNW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING AROUND THE LOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...BUT NO CLEAR ORGANIZATION IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. THE LOW IS UNDER AN AREA OF FAIRLY LIGHT SHEAR AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FURTHER DEVELOP IN LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1007 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N141W IS NEARLY STATIONARY. OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF 140W...FROM 14N TO 17N W OF 139W EAST WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 16N W OF 138W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT W DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTWOCP/ACPN50 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 10N TO 18N ALONG 103W/104W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT IS LIKELY STARTING TO SLOW AS IT NEARS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR 15N112W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO STARTING TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN DISPLACED NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE WAKE OF KARINA AND A PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS AREA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES FARTHER WEST NEAR 15N112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 10N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N113W 1010 MB TO 18N117W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N125W TO12N132W TO 14N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N125W TO THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT TRADE WINDS FLOW FARTHER SOUTH EXCEPT NEAR T.S. KARINA AND THE LOW PRES NEAR 14N141W. FARTHER SOUTH...AN 18 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W. CONVERGENCE OF THESE WINDS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. THE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE NOW 20 KT OR LESS BUT SEAS REMAIN TO 8 FT. ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT. A WEAKER EVENT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. $$ CHRISTENSEN