000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161446 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT AUG 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 124.1W AT 16/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 840 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM SW OF CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1006 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N140W IS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF LOW CENTER. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE ESTIMATED TO BE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 138W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT W DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTWOCP/ACPN50 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N-17N ALONG 102W/103W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM E OF WAVE BETWEEN 7N-9N ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 98W-105W. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES FARTHER WEST. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W ALONG 8N92W 10N107W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 18N114W THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N126W ALONG 12N131W TO 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N140W IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W-101W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 5N105W 12N112W TO 14N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 78W-91W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W-99W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 125W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM NE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 108W-114W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 134W-140W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N130W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE REMAINS VERY WEAK AND MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED ONLY 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS ARE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF T.S. KARINA. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM 13N- 16N W OF 138W WHERE WINDS ARE 20 KT AND SEAS ARE TO 9 FT DUE THE LOW NEAR 13N140W. THE SAME ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED AN AREA S OF T.S. KARINA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 115W-130W HAS WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS ARE TO 9 FT DUE TO SW SWELL. BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W WITH SE FLOW ALOFT N OF 24N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS SAME AREA IS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH DRY STABLE AIR. MOISTURE LADEN AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. GAP WINDS... THE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE NOW 20 KT OR LESS BUT SEAS REMAIN TO 8 FT. ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUN AND MON MORNINGS WITH WINDS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS REACHING 8 FT. $$ PAW