000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT AUG 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 122.9W AT 16/0900 
UTC MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
90 NM SW OF THE CENTER. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CLOSE TO 
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N140W IS 
NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE LOW. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0630 UTC 
INDICATED FRESH NE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THE CENTER. SEAS 
GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE ESTIMATED TO BE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 
12N TO 16N W OF 138W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W DURING THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST CPHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTWOCP/ACPN50 PHFO 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 13N ALONG 99W/100W INTO S CENTRAL 
MEXICO MOVING W NEAR 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 
13N AND 18N. THIS WAVE IS POORLY REPRESENTED IN DATA AND MODEL 
INITIALIZATIONS...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BE ABSORBED 
INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES FARTHER WEST.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N104W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 17N113W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N124W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 35N140W TO 
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE 
REMAINS VERY WEAK...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. SUCCESSIVE ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES 
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT TRADES IN PLACE SOUTH OF 
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF T.S. KARINA. 
THE EXCEPTION IS FROM 13N TO 16N W OF 138W WHERE WINDS ARE 20 KT 
AND SEAS ARE TO 9 FT DUE THE LOW NEAR 13N140W. 

BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W 
WITH SE FLOW ALOFT N OF 24N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS SAME 
AREA IS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH DRY STABLE AIR. MOISTURE LADEN 
AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
AN ASCAT PASS FRIDAY SHOWED GAP WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH MAX SEAS TO 8 FT. CONDITIONS HAVE 
DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS 
MORNING WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 8 FT. 

$$
MUNDELL