000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160239 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT AUG 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 121.2W AT 15/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 750 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM SW OF THE CENTER. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1007 MB LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N140W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 1830 UTC INDICATED FRESH TRADE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NW AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE CENTER. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE ESTIMATED TO BE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 138W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W TO NW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTWOCP/ACPN50 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 12N ALONG 98W/99W INTO S CENTRAL MEXICO MOVING W NEAR 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 12N AND 14N.THIS WAVE IS POORLY REPRESENTED IN DATA AND MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES FARTHER WEST. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 10N105W TO 16N114W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N146W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE REMAINS VERY WEAK...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. SUCCESSIVE ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT TRADES IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF T.S. KARINA. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM 13N TO 16N W OF 138W WHERE WINDS ARE 20 KT AND SEAS ARE TO 9 FT DUE THE 1007 MB LOW NEAR 13N140W. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS PERSISTS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. THIS IS IN AN AREA WHERE A PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE RELATIVELY SLOWER MOVING T.S. KARINA. THE MONSOON TROUGH SEEMS TO BE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THIS AREA AS SW FLOW SURGES NORTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AS YET...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK LOW WILL FORM IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W WITH SE FLOW ALOFT N OF 24N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS SAME AREA IS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH DRY STABLE AIR. MOISTURE LADEN AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. GAP WINDS... A LATE MORNING ASCAT SATELLITE PASS SHOWED GAP WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH MAX SEAS SEAS TO 8 FT. CONDITIONS HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE...BUT ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT WITH SEAS BARELY REACHING 8 FT. $$ CHRISTENSEN