000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI AUG 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 121.2W AT 15/2100 
UTC OR ABOUT 710 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM SW OF 
THE CENTER. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
13N140W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
NOTED CURRENTLY. EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES INDICATED FRESH 
TRADE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE CENTER. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 
FT OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 12N TO 15N W OF 138W. THE LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W TO NW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERE 
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
HFOTWOCP/ACPN50 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 11N ALONG 97W/98W INTO S CENTRAL 
MEXICO MOVING W NEAR 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING POORLY 
REPRESENTED IN DATA AND MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES 
FARTHER WEST.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 10N100W TO 15N107W...THEN 
CONTINUES FROM 14N123W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W 
AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS NOTED WITHIN WITHIN 240 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 133W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 
31N146W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
THE RIDGE REMAINS VERY WEAK...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
SUCCESSIVE ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY 10 
TO 15 KT TRADES IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF T.S. KARINA. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM 13N 
TO 16N W OF 138W WHERE WINDS ARE 20 KT AND SEAS ARE TO 9 FT DUE 
THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N140W. 

BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W 
WITH SE FLOW ALOFT N OF 24N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS SAME 
AREA IS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH DRY STABLE AIR. MOISTURE LADEN 
AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
A LATE MORNING ASCAT SATELLITE PASS SHOWED GAP WIND FLOW OF 20 
TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH MAX SEAS SEAS TO 8 
FT. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TODAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE IS 
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT WITH SEAS BARELY 
REACHING 8 FT. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN