000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151507 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI AUG 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 120.1W AT 15/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 670 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 119W-123W. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1009 MB LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N140W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 13N TO 16N W OF 138W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W TO NW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 12N ALONG 96W INTO S MEXICO MOVING W NEAR 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N77W ALONG 9N85W 7N94W 10N102W TO 15N107W THEN RESUMES NEAR 13N123W ALONG 12N127W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-85W...WITHIN 75 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-102W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO MONSOON TROUGH E OF 85W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA... WITHIN 280 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-112W...WITHIN 240W NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 128W-134W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 130W-138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W- 94W...FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 101W-110W...AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 115W-122W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N133W N OF KARINA NEAR TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY. DUE TO THE WEAK RIDGE...TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH IS VERY WEAK. SUCCESSIVE ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT TRADES IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF T.S. KARINA. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM 13N TO 16N W OF 138W WHERE WINDS ARE 20 KT AND SEAS ARE TO 9 FT DUE THE 1009 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W WITH SE FLOW ALOFT N OF 24N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS SAME AREA IS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH DRY STABLE AIR. MOISTURE LADEN AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA IS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 10N-12N BETWEEN 90W-93W...AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 110W-116W. GAP WINDS... AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS SHOWED GAP WIND FLOW OF AT LEAST 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH MAX SEAS SEAS TO 8 FT. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TODAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ PAW