000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC FRI AUG 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 119.1W AT 15/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT 620 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... 
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. EASTERLY 
SHEAR IS KEEPING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
75 NM W OF THE CENTER. KARINA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN WHILE CONTINUING ON A WESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

1009 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N140W IS 
NEARLY STATIONARY. DEEP CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER. THE LOW 
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WNW DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THERE IS A 
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 94W INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO 
MOVING W AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE EASTERN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N86W TO 10N103W... 
CONTINUES FROM 14N122W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 
103W...AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N130W TO CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA 
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH BREAKS THE RIDGE TO WEST...REACHING FROM 
30N130W TO 27N137W. DUE TO THE WEAKENED RIDGE...TRADE WIND FLOW 
FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH IS VERY WEAK. SUCCESSIVE 
ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE ONLY 
10 TO 15 KT TRADES IN PLACE SOUTH OF 15N W OF 120W. THIS IS 
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE GROWTH ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS NOTED W OF 130W. 

CONVERGENT MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 123W-128W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 
SW FLOW WILL PERSIST AND EXPAND SLIGHTLY IN SIZE FAR SOUTH OF 
KARINA AS THE STORM MOVES WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF 
SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS REACHING FROM 09N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0335 UTC SHOWED GAP WIND FLOW OF AT LEAST 20 
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH MAX SEAS SEAS TO 8 FT.  
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TODAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED 
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

$$
MUNDELL