000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150235 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI AUG 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE KARINA WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 118.3W AT 15/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 590 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM IN THE W QUADRANT OF THE CENTER. KARINA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE CONTINUING ON A WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N140W AT 1009 MB AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN 60 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES. WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE CENTER AND E OF 140W ARE 15-20 KT WHILE AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM IN SE QUADRANT OF THE CENTER. THE LOW MAY MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY 24 HOURS BEFORE ALL CONDITIONS SHIFT W OF 140W BY 48 HOURS. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 92W/93W INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVING W AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N90W TO 10N102W TO 10N105W...THEN IS DISCONTINUOUS TO 14N120W WHERE IT RESUMES AND CONTINUES TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W...AND FROM -9N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY 28N130W TO THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. A WEAK TROUGH BREAKS THE RIDGE TO WEST...REACHING FROM 30N130W TO 27N137W. AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENED RIDGE...TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH IS VERY WEAK. SUCCESSIVE ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT TRADES IN PLACE SOUTH OF 15N W OF 120W. THIS IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE GROWTH ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS NOTED W OF 130W. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO FRESH SW WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH...SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 17 UTC SHOWED SW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT NEAR 11N123W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SW FLOW WILL PERSIST AND GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF HURRICANE KARINA AS THE STORM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS REACHING FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. GAP WINDS... AN ASCAT PASS FROM 15 UTC SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LEFT OVER FROM MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. THE SAME 15 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED GAP WIND FLOW OF AT LEAST 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 92W WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE HAVE LIKELY SUBSIDED SINCE...BUT ANOTHER SURGE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. $$ CHRISTENSEN