000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142152 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 117.6W AT 14/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 550 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. KARINA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE CONTINUING ON A WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12.5N140W AT 1009 MB AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN 60 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES. WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE CENTER AND E OF 140W ARE 15-20 KT WHILE AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM IN SE QUADRANT OF THE CENTER. THE LOW MAY MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY 24 HOURS BEFORE ALL CONDITIONS SHIFT W OF 140W BY 48 HOURS. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 92W INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N105W TO 11N105W MOVING W AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 14N WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE MAY GET DRAWN INTO THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF KARINA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N90W TO 08N100W. MONSOON TROUGH FROM 13N120W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY 28N130W TO THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. A WEAK TROUGH BREAKS THE RIDGE TO WEST...REACHING FROM 30N130W TO 27N137W. AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENED RIDGE...TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH IS VERY WEAK. SUCCESSIVE ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT TRADES IN PLACE SOUTH OF 15N W OF 120W. THIS IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE GROWTH ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS NOTED W OF 130W. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO FRESH SW WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH...SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 17 UTC SHOWED SW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT NEAR 11N123W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SW FLOW WILL PERSIST AND GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF HURRICANE KARINA AS THE STORM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS REACHING FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. GAP WINDS... AN ASCAT PASS FROM 15 UTC SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LEFT OVER FROM MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. THE SAME 15 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED GAP WIND FLOW OF AT LEAST 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 92W WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE HAVE LIKELY SUBSIDED SINCE...BUT ANOTHER SURGE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. $$ CHRISTENSEN