000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC THU AUG 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 115.2W AT 14/1500 
UTC...OR ABOUT 482 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM IN THE NE...120 NM IN THE SE...210 NM 
IN THE SW...AND 120 NM IN THE NW QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER. 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME 
ORIENTED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD MASS WITH A MID-LEVEL 
EYE FEATURE SOMEWHAT EVIDENT. KARINA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN 
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT WHILE CONTINUING ON A WESTWARD 
MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR   
MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12.5N140W AT 
1007 MB AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS 
INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE NW AND SE 
QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER. WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE CENTER AND E 
OF 140W ARE CURRENTLY 15-20 KT WHILE AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN 
MIXED SWELL IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM IN SE QUADRANT OF THE 
CENTER. THE LOW MAY MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY 24 HOURS 
BEFORE ALL CONDITIONS SHIFT W OF 140W BY 48 HOURS. THE LOW HAS A 
HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 88W CONTINUING NORTHWARD 
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. NEW CONVECTION 
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOP JUST W OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE 
AXIS.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N104W TO 08N105W MOVING W AROUND 
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N 
OF 11N WITHIN 270 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE MAY GET DRAWN 
INTO THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF KARINA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N92W TO 12N103W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 13N117W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS 
PRESENT  E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM SW OF A LINE FROM 05N96W TO 09N103W...FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 
114W AND 120W...WITHIN 90-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
122W AND 128W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 136W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...IS 
LOCATED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS EXTENDING 
FROM NEAR 30N129W TO 29N35W TO 30N140W. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY 
OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT WHILE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA  
SHOWED ONLY 5-15 KT WINDS EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

1021 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO 
27N140W AND CONTINUING EASTWARD TO NEAR 26N115W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHING FROM NEAR 
19N129W TO 13N130W WITH ISOLATED AND SPORADIC CONVECTION IN THE 
VICINITY. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS DOMINATE THE 
WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SPECIAL FEATURES.

SW FLOW HAS INCREASED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO FRESH LEVELS 
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 119W WHICH HAS RESULTED IN 
BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THIS AREA OF SEAS WILL EXPAND THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SW FLOW INCREASES IN CONCERT WITH A 
STRENGTHENING KARINA TO THE N.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
AN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 
NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS FUNNELED IN ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FROM DRAINAGE FLOW  
OFF SE MEXICO KICKED IN. THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR 
LESS AROUND SUNRISE AND ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE NOW LESS THAN 8 FT.
  
GAP WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAS 
OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 88W 
WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE IN 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ANOTHER SURGE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

$$
LEWITSKY