000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140252
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC THU AUG 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 114.1W AT 14/0300 
UTC...OR ABOUT 375 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. KARINA IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE CONTINUING ON A WESTWARD 
MOTION REACHING HURRICANE STATUS IN 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N139W AT 1008 
MB AND IS STATIONARY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED 
CURRENTLY IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW PRES. ASSOCIATED WINDS 
ARE 20 KT OR LESS WHILE AN AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS IS LOCATED FROM 
14N TO 16N W OF 137W. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY 
WEST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 100W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO 
MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N98W TO 12N95W...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 13N102W TO 16N107W. MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N115W TO 
11N130W TO 12N134W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N139W 1008 MB TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 
120W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS W OF 130W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE 
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 16N130W. THIS HAD BEEN PROVIDING 
LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS T.S. KARINA EARLIER THIS 
AFTERNOON...EXPOSING THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS FILLED 
IN THE CENTER SINCE. FAIRLY DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS PERSIST 
FARTHER WEST NORTH OF 15N. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE REACHES FROM 28N130W TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH OF 30N NEAR 135W...BUT 
WILL LIKELY STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. 

THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FAIRLY WEAK...MAINTAINING ONLY MODEST TRADE 
WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG 128W FROM 12N TO 17N. AN EARLIER 
ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE NORTHERN 
END OF THIS TROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AND 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MODEST CONVECTION IS 
NOTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS W OF 130W. 

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 16 UTC INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND 
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE 
MOVING THROUGH NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE TRENDS 
WILL ENHANCE THIS FLOW SLIGHTLY AND WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
POSSIBLE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME OF THE GAP 
WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE 
WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT LIKELY DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN