000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132207
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC WED AUG 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 
112.6W AT 13/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 130 NM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND AND 
375 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING W OR 
275 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM NE 
AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 
07N108W TO 17N106W. KARINA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN 
WHILE CONTINUING ON A WESTWARD MOTION REACHING HURRICANE STATUS 
IN 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N139W AT 1008 
MB AND IS MOVING NW AROUND 8 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
NOTED CURRENTLY IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW PRES. ASSOCIATED 
WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WHILE AN AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS IS LOCATED 
FROM 14N TO 16N W OF 138W THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 12N ALONG 96W-97W INTO CENTRAL 
MEXICO MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N87W TO 12N95W...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 13N98W TO 15N105W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N115W 
TO 11N128W TO 13N133W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N139W 1008 MB TO 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 125W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 16 UTC INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG 
GAP WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 96W-97W AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN 
MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GAP WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BY TOMORROW MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF 
THE FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG GAP WINDS LATE FRI WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 FT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS CENTERED ALONG 128W BETWEEN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND 17N. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 1730 UTC INDICATED 
WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH...BUT NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AND NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS 
ANTICIPATED. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY N OF 15N W OF 
115W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 32N145W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. A 
WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TO 30N WHERE IT WILL STALL 
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. TRADE WIND FLOW REMAINS MODEST ALONG 
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH...BUT CLUSTERS OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION PERSIST. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN