000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131503 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED AUG 13 2014 CORRECTED DATE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 111.0W AT 13/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 96 NM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND AND 348 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 12N101W TO 19N110W. KARINA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE CONTINUING ON A WESTWARD MOTION REACHING HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N138W AT 1008 MB AND IS MOVING W AROUND 8 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT...210 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE...AND 180 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CENTER. CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WHILE AN AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS IS LOCATED TO THE N FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 136W. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 13N ALONG 95W-96W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION BELOW AND IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHICH CLUSTERS ARE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 16N108W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N115W TO 11N127W TO 12N133W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N138W TO 11N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 82W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...N OF 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...WITHIN 270 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N103W TO 09N111W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W AND 119W...AND WITHIN 60- 120 NM S OF A LINE FROM 10N121W TO 12N131W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE INDUCING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION...AND W OF ABOUT 115W. TO THE E OF 115W...AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. UPPER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA INCLUDING ACROSS TROPICAL STORM KARINA HAS WEAKENED SINCE 24 HOURS AGO...AND THE FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE SHIFTING WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1031 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N145W TO 25N112W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 32N W OF 130W PUSHES S AND STALLS NEAR 30N. TRADE WINDS ARE BARELY REACHING 20 KT CLOSER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N126W TO 12N128W. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD REACHING NEAR 134W BY 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY