000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC THU AUG 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS S CENTERED NEAR 17N109.8W AT 
13/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 385 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING 
WNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. VERY DEEP 
COLD TOP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES OVER AND NEAR 
THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION CONSIST OF THE NUMEROUS STRONG TYPE 
WITHIN WITHIN 75 NW AND 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW 
AND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IN AN OUTER BAND IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 
18N110W TO 19N109W...AND ALSO FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 106W-109W.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM 
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 17.4N 117.W...AND CONTINUE IN A WNW 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING 
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 12N ALONG 99W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO 
MOVING W AT ABOUT 13 KT. SCATTERED TSTMS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG INTENSITY ARE IN CLUSTERS BEHIND THE WAVE WITHIN 45 NM 
OF A LINE FROM 15N99W TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 15N94W. 
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 
99W-106W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO 09N79W TO 
09N98W TO 11N103W. IT RESUMES AT 13N112W TO 11N126W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 120W-125W...AND ALSO W OF 134W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 101W-112W...AND S OF THE TROUGH FROM 03N-09N E OF 80W TO 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE INDUCING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION...AND W OF ABOUT 
114W. TO THE E OF 114W...AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. UPPER ELY 
FLOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA INCLUDING ACROSS 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS WEAKEN SINCE 24 HOURS AGO...AND 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS AS THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO WEAKENS 
SLIGHTLY WHILE SHIFTING WESTWARD.

A THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO NEAR 
28N119W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES S AND STALLS NEAR 33N. 
TRADE WINDS ARE BARELY REACHING 20 KT CLOSER TO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS. A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 13N125W TO 19N124W. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE WESTWARD REACHING NEAR 133W BY 48 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE