000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC THU AUG 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E S CENTERED NEAR 
16N108W AT 13/0000 UTC...OR ABOUT 280 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO 
MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 
NW QUADRANT OF T.D. ELEVEN-E. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...REACHING TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH NEAR 17N110W BY EARLY WED. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 12N ALONG 96W/97W INTO CENTRAL 
MEXICO. ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS...THE 16 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE 
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF 
AN UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH YUCATAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA. GIVEN THE WEAKENING CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE GUST FRONT...THE STRONG WINDS HAVE LIKELY DIMINISHED OVER 
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT SEAS TO 8 FT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 09N98W...THEN 
CONTINUING FROM  13N110W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 
95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM S 
OF AXIS W OF 110W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 130W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N142W TO THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG 33N. 
TRADE WINDS ARE BARELY REACHING 20 KT CLOSER TO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS. NONETHELESS...AN 
EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR 
15N137W...VERIFYING WAVE MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THESE SEAS ARE 
DUE MAINLY TO PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT TRADES...BUT ALSO INCLUDE A 
MINOR COMPONENT OF SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE TRADE WINDS CONVERGENCE 
IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGE AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 110W. 

EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA HAS DISSIPATED. THIS HAD BEEN ACTIVE ALONG A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 115W N OF 
24N. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN