000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122129
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC WED AUG 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
A 1007 MB LOW PRES AT 16N107W IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 13N107W TO 19N106W MOVING NW 15 TO 20 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 N SEMICIRCLE 
OF THE LOW. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 15N 
TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 95W/96W INTO CENTRAL 
MEXICO. ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS...THE 16 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE 
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF 
AN UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH YUCATAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA. GIVEN THE WEAKENING CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE GUST FRONT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT SEAS TO 8 FT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 
EVENING.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 11N98W...THEN 
CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 16N107W 1007 MB TO 12N122W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 16N107W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 
180 NM S OF AXIS W OF 110W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 
31N145W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THE HIGH PRES IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND THE RIDGE WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG 
33N. TRADE WINDS ARE BARELY REACHING 20 KT CLOSER TO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS. NONETHELESS...AN 
EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR 
15N137W...VERIFYING WAVE MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THESE SEAS ARE 
DUE MAINLY TO PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT TRADES...BUT ALSO INCLUDE A 
MINOR COMPONENT OF SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE TRADE WINDS CONVERGENCE 
IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGE AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 110W. 

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS HAD BEEN 
ACTIVE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL 
TROUGH ALONG 115W N OF 24N. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN