000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC WED AUG 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1345 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
A 1008 MB LOW PRES AT 15N105W IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 20N106W TO 12N105W MOVING NW AROUND 15 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 N QUADRANT OF 
THE LOW WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
SEEN ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE. AN 0440 UTC ASCAT 
PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. 
UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N93W 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 13N94W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W 
AROUND 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOCUSED ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF THE WAVE...WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 08N83W TO 12N90W 
TO 15N100W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 11N110W TO 10N115W TO 11N122W 
TO 09N137W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 
210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 87W...FROM 10N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 94W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 112W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 
75 NM AND 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                                
A 1023 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NEAR 31N143W. A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 30N126W TO 20N108W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W 
WATERS IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS 
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS PRIMARILY W OF 125W. LITTLE CHANGE 
IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OR POSITION OF THE HIGH AND RIDGE 
AXIS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW 
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...A TROUGH N OF THE WAVE FROM 
24N108 TO 20N108W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM E OF TROUGH...INCLUDING OVER THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS TROUGH 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W IN TANDEM 
WITH THE WAVE AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN IF THE LOW TO THE S 
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 

AN AREA OF SEAS OVER 8 FT IN SW SWELL CAN BE FOUND OVER FORECAST 
WATERS S OF 01S BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. AN 0540 UTC ALTIMETER 
PASS CONFIRMED THESE CONDITONS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT HERE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$
SCHAUER