000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121033 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE AUG 13 2014 CORRECTED CONVECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS AT 14N103W...WHICH IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N103W TO 09N104W MOVING NW 13 KT. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW IS EVIDENT IN IR SHORTWAVE IMAGERY ...HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 17N BETWEEN 104W-110W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AND LOW...AND W OF THE WAVE TO NEAR 111W. CURRENTLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE OVER THIS SYSTEM WITH A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 93W FROM 10N N TO OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND THE FAR EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE FROM 11N TO 14N E TO 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER MEXICO JUST N OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 93W-97W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO 10N84W TO 11N96W TO 08N109W TO 11N124W TO 10N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIONIS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 130W-138W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 114W-120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM N OF TROUGH W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE OVERALL PATTERN HASN'T CHANGE MUCH OVER THE PAST 24-48 HRS. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S COVERING THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 134W WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 120W...AND IT IS LOCATED NEAR 25N128W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP LAYERED STABLE CONDITIONS EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE FROM 19N TO 30N W OF 115W. TO THE S AND E OF THESE UPPER FEATURES THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AN INVERTED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS SE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 23N115W TO 17N120W TO NEAR 12N123W. AN ANTICYCLONE IS OVER FAR WESTERN MEXICO JUST N OF CABO CORRIENTES. THE UPPER FLOW BETWEEN IT AND THE INVERTED TROUGH IS MAINLY MODERATE ELY. THIS ELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED JUST NW OF THE AREA AT 33N146W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 27N120W. A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH...MOST LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE MID/UPPER INVERTED TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE...IS ANALYZED FROM 19N119W TO 11N124W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. FRESH BREEZES BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ARE MAINLY W OF 125W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER WINDS IN AND NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE FAR WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES EVOLVING FROM THAT AREA. ON THE MARINE SIDE...AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS ATTRIBUTED TO SW SWELLS IS OCCURRING S OF 02S BETWEEN 110W-120W WHERE WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE SEA STATE CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING WED AFTERNOON. $$ AGUIRRE