000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC TUE AUG 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 91W FROM 10N TO OVER GUATEMALA AND 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT 
CONVECTION IS LIMITED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N101W THROUGH 
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N102W TO 9N103W MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 101W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 100W-107W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N84W ALONG 11N96W 8N106W 11N124W 
10N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
OF LINE FROM 16N110W TO OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N105W...AND N OF 15N 
TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 97W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
105W-119W...WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 9N120W TO 6N131W...AND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N125W TO 13N140W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                               

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S COVERING THE AREA N 
OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 135W WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE COVERING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 120W AND IS ANCHORED NEAR 
25N130W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP LAYERED 
STABLE CONDITIONS EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE FROM 19N TO 30N W OF 
115W. TO THE S AND E OF THESE UPPER FEATURES THE ATMOSPHERE 
REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AN INVERTED MID/UPPER TROUGH 
IS SE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 14N118W TO 22N113W. 
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA E OF 115W. THIS IS 
EASTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND COULD RESULT IN THE  
LOW/TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W/103W TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.  

AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS NEAR 31N141W WITH A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 23N123W. A SURFACE TROUGH...MOST LIKELY A 
REFLECTION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE...IS ANALYZED 
FROM 19N119W TO 11N124W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FRESH BREEZES BETWEEN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ARE MAINLY W OF 125W...AND GENTLE 
TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF HIGHER WINDS IN AND NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 
THE SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS. 

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF COSTA RICA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF PANAMA...INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG 
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-95W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 
12N93W TO 15N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N 
BETWEEN 88W-91W. 


$$
PAW