000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112049
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC TUE AUG 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE REGION 
NEAR 13N89W TO 10N89W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT 
CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN THE E PACIFIC WATERS DUE TO THE 
EASTERLY SHEAR.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N100W THROUGH 
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N101W TO 9N101W MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF 
WAVE FROM 11N-16N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 12N TO COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 107W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 10N95W 9N105W 10N112W 
13N123W 11N134W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 79W-82W...FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 
87W-91W...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 7N107W TO 9N16W...WITHIN 75 
NM ALONG MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 124W-136W...WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 
FROM 8N123W TO 6N133W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N132W TO 
13N140W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                               

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S COVERING THE AREA N 
OF 28N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE COVERING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 120W AND IS ANCHORED NEAR 
26N131W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP LAYERED 
STABLE CONDITIONS EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE FROM 19N TO 30N W OF 
115W. TO THE S AND E OF THESE UPPER FEATURES THE ATMOSPHERE 
REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AN INVERTED MID/UPPER TROUGH 
IS SE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 14N116W TO 22N111W. 
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ARE E OF 115W. THIS IS 
EASTERLY FLOW IS INHIBITING ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW/TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 100W/101W FOR THE TIME BEING. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS NEAR 31N140W WITH A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 24N119W. A SURFACE TROUGH...MOST LIKELY A 
REFLECTION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE...IS ANALYZED 
FROM 19N118W TO 13N122W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA 
INDICATES FRESH BREEZES BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE 
SURFACE RIDGE MAINLY W OF 125W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES 
ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER 
WINDS IN AND NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE 
PERSISTS. 

$$
PAW