000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC TUE AUG 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 99W/100W N OF 09N MOVING W NEAR 15 
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 14N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO 
BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA 
OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WHICH CONTINUE TO HINDER 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED FOR 
THE TIME BEING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY 
ORGANIZE INTO A LOW PRES SYSTEM BEYOND 48 HRS AS IT TRACKS IN A 
WNW MOTION. 

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE 
EXTENDS TO 10N88W. MOST OF THE ATTENDANT MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE FAR W 
CARIBBEAN. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 09N100W TO 12N120W TO 11N130W TO 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 
79W...ALSO 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W 
AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 119W AND 130W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                               

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 24N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
ESE TO A COL NEAR 25N118W...AND THEN CONTINUING NE TO CENTRAL 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO 
MAINTAIN DEEP LAYERED STABLE CONDITIONS EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE 
FROM 19N TO 30N W OF A LINE FROM FAR NW MEXICO TO 20N120W TO 
16N140W. TO THE SE OF THIS LINE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE 
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 11N117W NE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE W 
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 26N108W. A PAIR OF SMALL ANTICYCLONES ARE 
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N103W AND 30N108W. THE FLOW PATTERN 
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS RESULTING IN THE STRONG UPPER ELY 
FLOW THAT IS PREVENTING CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 99W/100W FROM ORGANIZING. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS N OF AREA NEAR 32N140W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 30N130W TO NEAR 22N113W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH...MOST LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH 
DESCRIBED ABOVE...IS ANALYZED FROM 17N118W TO 12N121W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NW OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED FRESH BREEZES 
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE SURFACE RIDGE MAINLY W OF 125W...AND 
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER WINDS IN AND NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS...AND LOW PRES FORMS ALONG 
OR NEAR THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. 

$$
COBB