000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111006 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC TUE AUG 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 96W N OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF 
THE WAVE FROM 13N-16N. STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS CONTINUE TO 
HINDER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE FROM BECOMING 
ORGANIZED FOR THE TIME BEING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE WILL 
EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LOW PRES SYSTEM BEYOND 48 HRS AS IT 
TRACKS IN A WNW MOTION.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE 
WILL PASS ALONG 11N E OF 92W ON WED ATTENDANT WITH MOISTURE AND 
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO 10N85W TO 10N100W 
TO 12N118W WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS IT TRANSITIONS TO 
THE ITCZ TO 10N129W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION EXITS FROM 03N-07N E OF 79W TO COAST OF 
COLOMBIA...ALSO S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE 
FROM 05N92W TO 07N97W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 133W AND 137W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                               

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 
24126W...AND THEN NE TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO NW MEXICO 
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WITH STABLE 
CONDITIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE FROM 19N TO 
30N W OF A LINE FROM FAR NW MEXICO TO 20N120W TO 16N140W. TO THE 
SE OF THIS LINE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND 
UNSTABLE AS AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS OBSERVED TO 
EXTEND FROM 11N116W NE TO 17N113W...AND TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO 
NEAR 25N105W WHILE A SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AT 
21N102W. THE FLOW PATTERN THESE TWO FEATURES IS RESULTING IN THE 
STRONG UPPER ELY FLOW THAT IS PREVENTING CONVECTION RELATED TO 
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W FROM ORGANIZING. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF 
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF 
GUATEMALA IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THIS BELY FLOW. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS N OF AREA NEAR 36N138W WITH A 
RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N133W TO NEAR 24N125W. A SURFACE TROUGH... 
...MOST PROBABLE A REFLECTION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED 
ABOVE...IS ANALYZED FROM 17N116W TO 12N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO ITS NW...AND TO ITS SE FROM 10N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 114W-117W. LATEST ASCAT DATA DEPICTED FRESH 
BREEZES BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND SURFACE RIDGE MAINLY W OF 
125W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER WINDS IN AND NEAR CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HRS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS...AND LOW PRES FORMS 
ALONG OR NEAR THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. 

$$
AGUIRRE