000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110252
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC TUE AUG 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N96W TO OVER MEXICO NEAR 16N95W 
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW IS 
NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM W OF WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-14N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 10N104W TO 13N119W. 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 13N120W ALONG 10N129W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 91W-
96W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 132W-137W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 85W-89W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 110W-140W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                               

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W 
OF 112W INCLUDING A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ANCHORED NEAR 
25N120W TO 24N135W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA OF THE 
RIDGE FROM 20N TO 30N W OF 113W TO JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 143W. SE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE LIES AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N115W ALONG 16N110W TO OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO NEAR 25N105W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 15N. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED WELL N OF AREA 
EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE S THROUGH 32N132W THEN SE TO 24N125W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 18N115W TO 
13N119W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM E AND 
WITHIN 120 NM W OF TROUGH AXIS. FRESH BREEZES ARE BETWEEN THE 
ITCZ AND SURFACE RIDGE MAINLY W OF 125W AND GENTLE TO MODERATE 
BREEZES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING 
WITHIN AREAS OF CONVECTION. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE 
LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS.  
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE REGION ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF COAST 
OF COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF MEXICO 
COAST BETWEEN 92W AND 101W 

$$
PAW