000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102052
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC SUN AUG 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 95W FROM A OVER MEXICO ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N95W MOVING W NEAR 
10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 
11N95W ALONG 9N100W 12N116W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 10N125W 12N135W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 80W-87W...FROM 3N-8N 
BETWEEN 87W-94W...WITHIN 240 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 118W-130W... 
AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N131W TO 14N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 96W-102W...FROM 11N- 
15N BETWEEN 100W-103W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 15N120W TO 
13N124W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                               

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W 
OF 110W INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ANCHORED NEAR 25N121W TO 
25N135W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA OF THE RIDGE FROM 
20N TO 30N W OF 112W TO JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 143W. 
SE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE LIES AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 14N112W ALONG 18N109W TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 
25N104W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA S OF 15N. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 
35N138W EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N135W TO 20N130W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 12N116W TO 
19N115W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH BREEZES ARE BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND SURFACE 
RIDGE MAINLY W OF 125W AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ELSEWHERE 
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WITHIN AREAS OF 
CONVECTION. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS. 

$$
PAW