000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101613
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC SUN AUG 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W N OF 08N...AND EXTENDS N-NE ACROSS 
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS WAVE IS  
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE PACIFIC. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 10.5N TO 
NEAR MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 89W AND 101W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
WAVE. STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE 
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS MOVED SW THIS MORNING TO 
ALONG 100W...AS THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A NARROW MIDDLE 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO S-SW TO 
NEAR 13N98W. OTHERWISE...THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF 
MODERATE E TO NE WIND SHEAR. THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS 
SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL SOON FORM ALONG THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS 
WNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 08.5N80W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 11N93W 1009MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N115.5W 1009 MB TO 
12.5N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 
BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N 
OF 05N E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH FROM 94W AND 129W...AND WITHIN 
210 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 
133W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...                                               

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 26N121W 
MOVING EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA THEN NE FROM THERE TO OVER NW MEXICO. THE 
RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W TO A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE 27N138W... 
THEN EXTENDS NW FROM THERE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. SOUTHEAST 
OF THE RIDGE LIES AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 27N103W TO 14N111W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY 
FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 15N ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC 
NEAR 36N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N120W.  A WEAK 
TROUGH ALONG 115W EXTENDS N-NE FROM LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N115.5W 
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION WERE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE 
TROUGH. RECENT ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
HIGHLIGHT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
RIDGE...AND MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION WHERE NE MODERATE WINDS WERE NOTED FROM 
ABOUT 12N TO 17N W OF 135W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE 
LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE PRES GRADIENT THERE 
REMAINS IN TACT.

$$
STRIPLING