000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC SAT AUG 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W N OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE 
WAVE IS ALIGNED WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. SIMILAR FLOW IS ALSO AT THE MID 
AND UPPER LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM W AND 180 NM E OF THE WAVE. IN 
ADDITION...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 
93W AND 98W. THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW 
PRES WILL SOON FORM ALONG THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS WNW OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO 10N85W TO 11N109W TO 
12N122W TO 12N136W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT IT 
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 05N TO 07N E OF 
83W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 111W-113W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 93W-99W.  
       
...DISCUSSION...                                               

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N121W 
MOVING EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 136W...AND NW 
FROM THERE TO W OF THE AREA AT 17N140W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE E TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
CALIFORNIA...AND NE FROM THERE TO OVER NW MEXICO. THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE NW 
OF A LINE FROM CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO TO 18N120W TO 15N140W. 
MOSTLY BROKEN PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SSW ARE WITHIN 
THIS AREA. TO THE SE AND S OF THE SAME LINE CONDITIONS ARE THE 
OPPOSITE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS SEEN ON THE 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CHANNEL. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING 
WESTWARD IS NEAR 17N109W. CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE TO ITS SW 
ALONG NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TO ITS 
E...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N101W COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN 95W-
105W.
 
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG 110W FROM 10N TO 13N. A 
STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH CENTER N OF THE AREA AT 35N137W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N134W TO NEAR 20N129W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE 
PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N 120W. RECENT ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH 
A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHTED GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN PORTION WHERE NE MODERATE 
WINDS WERE NOTED FROM ABOUT 12N TO 17N W OF 135W. THESE WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE 
CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT THERE REMAINS IN TACT.

$$
AGUIRRE