000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC SAT AUG 9 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL IS N OF 10N ALONG 89W MOVING 
W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE POOL OF VERY 
MOIST AIR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM E AND 180 NM W OF WAVE FROM 10N TO 15N. 700 MB 
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NICELY 
DEPICT THIS WAVE AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR 102W BY MON. GLOBAL MODELS 
SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE FROM THIS WAVE BY 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 08N ALONG 101W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE 
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W-105W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA W TO ACROSS PANAMA...TO 
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND TO 10N90W TO 11N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
12N115W TO 08N129W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 
09N116W TO 08N120W TO 07N126W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN
91W AND 94W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                         

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 25N120W WITH A RIDGE 
WNW TO W OF THE OF THE AREA AT 16N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM MAZATLAN MEXICO TO 
21N121W TO 17N140W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS 
MOVING SSW ARE SEEN OVER THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS...FROM 
HURRICANE JULIO W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ARE STREAMING NEWD TO 
ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. 
 
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES SEWD THROUGH 32N135W TO 
26N125W AND TO NEAR 23N116W. THE RIDGE IS RATHER WEAK...AND IS 
ALLOWING FOR RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. AN ASCAT 
PASS FROM NEAR 05 UTC THIS MORNING DEPICTED GENTLE N-NE WINDS E 
OF THE RIDGE...AND SIMILARLY GENTLE WINDS FROM THE NE-E TO THE 
NW OF THE RIDGE. NW-N WINDS OF FRESH INTENSITY WERE NOTED IN THE 
SAME ASCAT PASS TO BE CONFINED TO JUST N OF THE AREA WHERE A 
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND 
127W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL SECTION OF 
THE AREA BETWEEN HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 19N146W AND HIGH PRES TO 
ITS NE IS RESULTING IN MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THAT PART 
OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK AS A HIGH PRES CENTER NW OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS SWD. A WEAK TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 
110W FROM 13N TO 20N WILL MOVE SLOWLY WNW OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS 
WHILE WEAKENING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN 
WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE TROUGH. TO THE E OF THIS SAME 
TROUGH...AND ALSO S OF 13N E OF 123W...THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY 
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH POCKETS OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY 
OCCURRING IN CLUSTERS OUTSIDE THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. 

$$
AGUIRRE