000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC FRI AUG 8 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
HURRICANE JULIO CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 139.1W AT 08/0300 UTC OR 
ABOUT 920 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 120 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
100 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N W OF 136W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 09N ALONG 93W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N97W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N92W. ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 12N120W TO 06N134W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 09N E OF 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                         
HURRICANE JULIO REMAINS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DISCUSSION AREA 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD AND 
INTENSITY. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE AREA OF HIGH WINDS AND 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF 140W. 

THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONE AREA OF INTEREST IS WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS REACHING 15-20 KT AT 
TIMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT...THE 
RESULT OF A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 34N142W AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS SOCAL...AZ...AND 
NW MEXICO. OTHERWISE...AFTER JULIO EXITS THE AREA...EASTERLY 
FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN S OF 24N ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
24N120W. E-NE TRADES EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH THEMSELVES ACROSS 
THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT AND 
SEAS RUNNING 5-7 FT.

$$
MUNDELL