000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC THU AUG 7 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
HURRICANE JULIO CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 137.7W AT 07/2100 UTC OR 
ABOUT 1000 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING W AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N W OF 134W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 09N ALONG 92W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 94.5W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N90W. DISCONTINUOUS 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N95W TO 12N108W THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N116W TO 
06N130W TO 07N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 09N E OF 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W...AND FROM 05N 
TO 09N BETWEEN 124W AND 131W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                         
HURRICANE JULIO REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DISCUSSION 
AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING GENERALLY 
WESTWARD. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE AREA OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF 140W. 

THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONE AREA OF INTEREST IS WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS REACHING 15-20 KT AT 
TIMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT...THE 
RESULT OF A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 35N142W AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS SOCAL...AZ...AND 
NW MEXICO. OTHERWISE...AFTER JULIO EXITS THE AREA...EASTERLY 
FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN S OF 24N ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 24N120W. E-NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT 
AND SEAS RUNNING 5-7 FT.

$$
MUNDELL