000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC WED AUG 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
HURRICANE JULIO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 136.5W AT 07/1500 UTC OR 
ABOUT 1070 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING W AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 133W AND 138W. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N89W TO 16N89W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N95W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 07N95W TO 11N107W 
THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N113W TO 07N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N E OF 87W...FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 
97W AND 103W...AND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                         
HURRICANE JULIO REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DISCUSSION 
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING 
GENERALLY WESTWARD. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE AREA OF 12 FT SEAS OR 
GREATER WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA AND BY EARLY 
SATURDAY...THE REMAINING SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ARE FORECAST TO BE WEST 
OF THE AREA AS WELL. HURRICANE JULIO ASIDE...THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. ONE AREA OF INTEREST IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS REACHING A PERSISTENT 15-20 KT 
THRESHOLD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND SEAS BUILDING TO A MAXIMUM OF 
7 FT. THIS AREA LIES WITHIN A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
AN OCEANIC 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N142W AND LOWER PRESSURE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ARIZONA...AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. 
OTHERWISE...AFTER THE WESTWARD EXIT OF JULIO FROM THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN 
S OF 24N ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N120W. NORTHEASTERLY 
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION 
OF THE AREA WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT AND SEAS 
MAINTAINING A 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.

$$
HUFFMAN